Greeley is the 5th-ranked city in the whole country for one year appreciation.  This is according to the Federal Housing Finance Authority’s most recent quarterly report.  They track close to 300 markets all over the U.S.

For the first time in a long time, the Fort Collins/Loveland market did not make the top 20 list- they came in ranked 76th.

Greeley’s appreciation over the last year was 12.63% and Fort Collins/Loveland’s was 7.98%.

Who was first?  Boise, Idaho with 15.25%.

Who was last? Peoria, Illinois whose prices fell 1.26%.

What about other Colorado cities?

• Colorado Springs – 14th @ 11.65%
• Grand Junction – 16th @ 11.47%
• Denver – 28th @ 10.18%
• Boulder – 68th @ 8.25%

Overall, prices in the U.S. increased by an average of 6.9%.  A couple of interesting side notes-  a minimum of 11% was required to make the top-20, and 18 of the top 20 are in the Western U.S.

Grab a copy of our Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email us at colorado@windermere.com and we will send you a video which clarifies the process and our Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

The April results are in for Larimer and Weld County…

Larimer County had 547 residential sales for the month, 11% fewer than a year ago.  Weld County was up 13% compared to last year with 493 sales.

Why is Larimer down and Weld up?  It’s mostly driven by affordability – there tend to be more homes to choose from under $350,000 in Weld County.

How about prices?  Average prices went up 10% in Larimer County and 9% in Weld County compared to April 2017.

Larimer County’s average price is $419,918 and Weld’s is $359,402.

We now measure inventory levels in terms of days.  Typically we measure in months.  For instance, a “balanced market” is when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory currently for sale.  Meaning that, in a balanced market, it would take 4 to 6 months to sell every home that is currently on the market.

Anything less than 4 months is a seller’s market.  Certainly, when we measure in days, we are in an extreme seller’s market.

Today the Greeley market has 18 days of inventory, Fort Collins has 27 days, Loveland has 30, and Windsor has 51.

These are all lower than a year ago.  For example, Greeley at this time last year had 27 days of inventory.

But this statistic can be misleading.  Sometimes people assume that the extreme seller’s market applies to all price ranges and all locations.

Not true.  When we drill down we find sub-patterns that are revealing.  For example, homes in Loveland priced over $500,000 have 3 months of inventory and homes in Fort Collins over $750,000 have 5 months.

Because inventory levels tend to increase as prices increase, there becomes a distinct advantage for the move up buyer.  Today, many people can sell in an extreme seller’s market and move up to a price range with less competition and more selection.

If our active market has you thinking about investing in real estate in Northern Colorado. Check this out…

Grab a copy of our Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email us at colorado@windermere.com and we will send you a video which clarifies the process and our Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

At the end of this weekend College Basketball’s Final 4 will be established.  It might make you wonder, what the top 4 and bottom 4 real estate markets across the country?

Here they are, ranked by the last 12 months of appreciation according to fhfa.gov:

Top 4:

1. Tacoma, WA             14.6%
2. Seattle, WA               14.3%
3. Port St. Lucie, FL      13.7%
4. Las Vegas, NV          13.6%

Bottom 4:

1. Atlantic, NJ               -3.14%
2. Peoria, IL                  -3.0%
3. Huntington, WV        -2.6%
4. Jackson, MS            -1.2%

If you are watching the Olympics this week you probably notice that a fast start can make all the difference.

We notice that the luxury market is off to a fast start so far in 2018 in Northern Colorado.

2018 is ahead of 2017 by a score of 8 to 0.

Here’s what we mean.

So far this year in Fort Collins, Loveland, Windsor and Greeley there have 8 homes sold priced over $1,000,000.

During the same time frame last year, none had sold.

In all of 2017 there were 58 homes which sold over $1,000,000 in these markets. 2018 is well ahead of last year’s pace.

This is one of the many indicators of the health of our Northern Colorado market.

Will 2018 win the Gold? If the fast start is any indication, it’s looking good so far!

The stock market is in turmoil this week (I’m guessing that you’ve noticed). Investors feel like they’re strapped into a roller coaster at Coney Island- up and down and all around they go, thrashed around by the whims of the market.

These are words currently on financial news websites: Whiplash, Volatile, Wild Ride, Plunge!

But, here’s the deal. While the Dow Jones plummeted 4.2% yesterday (in one day!?), real estate in Northern Colorado did not.

Real Estate is the antidote for stock market heartburn.

Consider the numbers:

• Over the last 40 years, Northern Colorado real estate prices have averaged a 5.36% increase per year.
• The last 10 years have seen a 4.99% increase per year.
• It took the worst economy of our lifetime in 2008 to cause prices to go down only 2.2%. (massive banks were going out of business on Wall Street and real estate prices here went down 2.2%!)
• Our NoCo population is growing by about 13,000 per year and those people need a place to live.

If you’re looking for a predictable, tangible, calming, help-you-sleep-at-night, easy-to-understand place to put your money, real estate just might be for you!

As it turns out, we can help you with that 🙂

Now, here’s how the current events on Wall Street have a very relevant impact on real estate- interest rates.

If you attended our Market Forecast you saw how the 30-year mortgage rate has a direct correlation to the 10-year treasury note.

Rates on the 10-year note are up over a half of a percent in just a few weeks. We have seen mortgage rates go up recently and they will continue to go up.

We believe this may slow the rate of home price appreciation (this doesn’t mean ‘go down’, it means the pace of appreciation will slow).

As mentioned above, the long-term appreciation has been near 5% per year. Lately it’s been near 8%. Rising rates could cause the prices to go back to their more normal appreciation rate.

So, even if your stock market portfolio is taking a wild ride, sleep well knowing your real estate continues to perform.

Here are some interesting stats on the national real estate market shared by Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner at our Market Forecast two weeks ago:

• The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks 20 markets around the country, is still 12% below it’s 2005 peak when adjusted for inflation.
• New Home starts in 2018 are projected to be 900,000.  In 2005 there were 1.7 million.
• The average length of time someone lives in a home is now at 8.2 years.  In the year 2000 it was 4.2 years.
• The homeownership rate now sits at 64% which is 1% below the long-term average.  In 2005 it spiked to almost 70%

Because our Northern Colorado market has been so active over the last four years, clients often ask us if we think there is a housing bubble forming.

There are several key statistics which we track closely in order to answer that question.

Here is one fact that we find to be insightful…

One of the root causes of the last housing bubble was the glut of inventory, and specifically new home inventory.  Quite simply, the market was being oversupplied with new homes.  The rules of economics say when there is oversupply, prices must come down.

Today, there are far fewer new home starts compared to 2004 and 2005 when the last bubble was forming – despite there being a larger population.

According to our friends at Metrostudy who track the new home market, Northern Colorado has had 4,452 new home starts in the last 12 months.

That number is only 60% of what it was at the height of construction in early 2005.

It is also interesting to note that over the last 12 months there have been 4,473 new home closings which shows that demand is keeping up with supply.

So when you drive around Northern Colorado and notice all the new homes being built, know that construction activity is far less than what is was during the bubble and that demand is keeping up with supply.

In case you missed our annual real estate Forecast event, you can reach out to us to see the presentation slides or receive a video recap of the information.  Just email us at colorado@fortcollins.com

Last night was our annual Market Forecast event. Thank you to the 400 clients and friends who joined us at the Marriott.

Here are our predictions for where prices are going in 2018:

• Fort Collins 8%
• Loveland 7%
• Greeley 9%

Last year’s average price increases looked like this:

• Fort Collins 7%
• Loveland 8%
• Greeley 11%

Low inventory will persist in many parts of the market during 2018. But, like we mentioned last night, there are many parts of the market where the market is in balance or even over-supplied with homes. All markets are local!

Our Cheif Economist, Matthew Gardner, shared several of his insights including his prediction for interest rates one year from now which is 4.4% (about 0.5% higher than today).

For buyers thinking about waiting until the market cools off, there is a tangible cost to that wait. If prices and interest rates go up as we predict, a one-year wait would equal over $200 per month for a $400,000 home.

In case you missed the event, you can read more about it here in the Loveland Reporter-Herald. They did a great recap of our presentation. CLICK HERE

First things first, this is your last call to register for our Annual Forecast.  If you want clarity on what is happening in the market, this is the event to attend.  We will be live at 5:30 Thursday the 18th at the Marriott.  RSVP to www.windermereforecast.com

Now, what’s going up?  According to our Cheif Economist Matthew Gardner, interest rates.  His prediction for 2018 is that rates will rise roughly 0.5% up to 4.4%.

That means a buyer’s purchasing power will go down by 5%.  Even if prices didn’t increase at all, a buyer’s monthly payment would go up 5% because of a measly 1/2% increase in interest rate.

By Matthew’s own admission, rates have baffled forecasters for the last few years.  Unusual forces have kept them artificially low for a sustained period of time.  But even a small rate increase like Matthew predicts will have a big effect on potential buyers.

To hear our predictions for the 2018 market, join our live Market Forecast event on January 18th at the Marriott in Fort Collins. Back by popular demand is Windermere’s Cheif Economist Matthew Gardner who will give you valuable and interesting insights into the real estate market. Reserve your spot at www.windermereforecast.com